Product Part 2. P2P Options/Predictions


This one will be short.

We only adjust few things and want to see if that improves the “predictions game dynamics”.

  1. Period of time to make a counter-stake is always 50 % of an “option/prediction duration”
  2. You can play against the “house”. There are some specific rules on how it works, however.

The first one is simple and is needed to balance the risk/reward for both “options/prediction creator” and “taker(s)

The second one is a bit more complex.
In order to increase the flow of initial predictions/options/calls we want to allow the makers to play against the “house”.
One problem has to be solved, however. Let’s call it “ETH > 1 USD problem”.
If we allow the makers to issue such options, they will always win.
In order to solve it - the following has to be done:

  1. The system sets the “boundaries” parameters based on the previous 1 week of the market behaviour
  2. “Maker” can only choose “above”, “below” or “in between” these predefined price levels.

Exact mathematic has to be explored yet.
But if we take the current market conditions (as of 05.04.2020) it would be something like this:

  • time frame “24 hours”
  • lower border 140 USD
  • higher border 148 USD

The maker who wants to play against the house can issue any of the following options:

  • After 24 hours ETH will be above 148
  • After 24 hours ETH will be below 140
  • After 24 hours ETH will still be in the range > 140 and < 148

If he wants to play against the house, he needs to place 100 SANs
For each of the possibilities above we have a reward pool (RP). Let’s say it’s 1000 SANs initially.

If the “maker” wins, he takes % of the RP. This % is calculated, based on the amount of “winning bets against the house”.